Perhaps the biggest complaint non-baseball fans have about the sport is that it is boring. Often, they point to the pace of the game to make the argument.
In an NFL game in 2010 there were an average (mean) of 126 plays. Baseball doesn't have plays in a strict sense, and its timing is, obviously, far more dependent on the action on the field, given the lack of a clock. But say you count a pitch as a play: there are almost always at least 200 in a game, and often 250 or 300.
Now consider: A typical NFL game takes three hours. That is on the long side for an MLB game, even though an MLB game will always have more plays than an NFL game, at least based on the above definitions of a play.
One's perception of time when watching the two sports on television may be where the complaints arise. While every pitch in a baseball game has the potential to create action, most do not realize that potential. The ball gets thrown back to the pitcher and--especially if he works slowly--you wait for the next one, but generally there is not much to review. Meanwhile, after every football play, the next 30 seconds can be used for replays, since football doesn't have the problem.
But, how often in football is there a commercial, followed by a kickoff, and immediately followed by more commercials?
Anyway, it would seem that it's not so much that baseball has more inaction than football, just that it's easier to cover up the inaction in NFL broadcasts than MLB broadcasts.
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Friday, August 10, 2012
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Are these the 13 best games by a quarterback since 1960?
Link: http://pfref.com/tiny/ZV3Jo
Perhaps not, but they might be 13 of the best 50.
That Rattay game is crazy, and not just because Tim Rattay was responsible. Here's the ESPN recap: http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241010025
Link: http://pfref.com/tiny/ZV3Jo
Perhaps not, but they might be 13 of the best 50.
That Rattay game is crazy, and not just because Tim Rattay was responsible. Here's the ESPN recap: http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241010025
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Degrees of Anger
On twitter, people getting angry at someone (rob neyer) for defending someone (bill james) who defended someone (joe paterno) who defended someone. How far can this go?
Saturday, March 24, 2012
NFL Passer Rating Record
Drew Brees just broke Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season, a record which lasted 27 years.
But when Joe Montana achieved a 112.4 passer rating in 1989, it was the best the NFL had seen in 29 years.
Passer rating didn’t go into official use 1972, but in 1960 Milt Plum achieved a 110.4 rating, which was applied retroactively.
That effectively cut his time with the record in half, which, in addition to the obscurity of the formula itself, is probably why Plum’s longtime mark is not so well known.
Nevertheless, in 1960 Plum completed 151 of 250 passes for 2297 yards with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Had the statistic been around in 1960, and were his team and coach concerned with it (no guarantee), Plum’s mark might have been better.
He went into the final game of the season with just one interception, but against the Giants he was 19 of 40 for 296 yards, with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Browns nevertheless won, 48-34.
Prior to that game, however, Plum’s 132 completions on 210 attempts for 2001 yards with 17 touchdowns and just one interception would have been a 119.2 rating.
Had that been the mark instead of 110.4, it might not have been broken until 2004, and would still be the third best of all time.
On the flip side, had Plum thrown just one fewer TD pass with the same numbers otherwise, his rating would have been 109.0, in which case Sammy Baugh’s 109.9 rating in 1945 would have stood as the record until 1989.
Evolution of NFL Passer Rating Record (Retroactively until 1972)
(Minimums: 168 attempts, 1920-60; 196 attempts, 1961-77; 224 attempts, 1978-present)
Yr Quarterback Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Rtg
1936 Arnie Herber Packers 77 173 1239 11 13 58.9
1940 Sammy Baugh Redskins 111 177 1367 12 10 85.6
1942 Cecil Isbell Packers 146 268 2021 24 14 87.0
1943 Sid Luckman Bears 110 202 2194 28 12 107.5
1945 Sammy Baugh Redskins 128 182 1669 11 4 109.9
1960 Milt Plum Browns 151 250 2297 21 5 110.4
1989 Joe Montana 49ers 271 386 3521 26 8 112.4
1994 Steve Young 49ers 324 461 3969 35 10 112.8
2004 Peyton Manning Colts 336 497 4557 49 10 121.1
2011 Aaron Rodgers Packers 343 502 4643 45 6 122.5
But when Joe Montana achieved a 112.4 passer rating in 1989, it was the best the NFL had seen in 29 years.
Passer rating didn’t go into official use 1972, but in 1960 Milt Plum achieved a 110.4 rating, which was applied retroactively.
That effectively cut his time with the record in half, which, in addition to the obscurity of the formula itself, is probably why Plum’s longtime mark is not so well known.
Nevertheless, in 1960 Plum completed 151 of 250 passes for 2297 yards with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Had the statistic been around in 1960, and were his team and coach concerned with it (no guarantee), Plum’s mark might have been better.
He went into the final game of the season with just one interception, but against the Giants he was 19 of 40 for 296 yards, with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Browns nevertheless won, 48-34.
Prior to that game, however, Plum’s 132 completions on 210 attempts for 2001 yards with 17 touchdowns and just one interception would have been a 119.2 rating.
Had that been the mark instead of 110.4, it might not have been broken until 2004, and would still be the third best of all time.
On the flip side, had Plum thrown just one fewer TD pass with the same numbers otherwise, his rating would have been 109.0, in which case Sammy Baugh’s 109.9 rating in 1945 would have stood as the record until 1989.
Evolution of NFL Passer Rating Record (Retroactively until 1972)
(Minimums: 168 attempts, 1920-60; 196 attempts, 1961-77; 224 attempts, 1978-present)
Yr Quarterback Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Rtg
1936 Arnie Herber Packers 77 173 1239 11 13 58.9
1940 Sammy Baugh Redskins 111 177 1367 12 10 85.6
1942 Cecil Isbell Packers 146 268 2021 24 14 87.0
1943 Sid Luckman Bears 110 202 2194 28 12 107.5
1945 Sammy Baugh Redskins 128 182 1669 11 4 109.9
1960 Milt Plum Browns 151 250 2297 21 5 110.4
1989 Joe Montana 49ers 271 386 3521 26 8 112.4
1994 Steve Young 49ers 324 461 3969 35 10 112.8
2004 Peyton Manning Colts 336 497 4557 49 10 121.1
2011 Aaron Rodgers Packers 343 502 4643 45 6 122.5
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Participate in Some Polls
Presidents: Approve and disapprove of the performance of every president from Washington to Obama
Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/Z6TFQ6Q
NFL: Select every quarterback in league history (and today) you would call a great quarterback.
Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/V3JY2Y6
You will be able to see the results after your vote. Thanks for participating!
Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/Z6TFQ6Q
NFL: Select every quarterback in league history (and today) you would call a great quarterback.
Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/V3JY2Y6
You will be able to see the results after your vote. Thanks for participating!
Saturday, February 18, 2012
The definitive Manning-Brady guide
Are you a member of the media?
Are you a Patriots fan?
Did you attend the University of Michigan from 1998-99?
If you answered yes to any of these questions, Brady is better. Otherwise, it's Manning.
Are you a Patriots fan?
Did you attend the University of Michigan from 1998-99?
If you answered yes to any of these questions, Brady is better. Otherwise, it's Manning.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Two Attempts at Reviewing Postseason Performance
The tables below should hopefully give an idea of how often a QB does poorly in the postseason, and how his teams do when their QB plays below his standard.
First: "Bad game" defined as less than 6 adjusted yards per attempt. Last column is team W-L record in such games.
Kelly
59%
5-5
Marino
56%
1-9
McNabb
50%
2-6
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
Roethlisberger
43%
3-3
P. Manning
42%
4-4
Elway
38%
4-4
Brady
36%
6-2
Young
36%
1-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
Favre
29%
1-6
E. Manning
27%
0-3
Aikman
27%
1-3
Montana
26%
2-4
Warner
8%
1-0
Brees
0%
0-0
Second: "Bad game" defined as one where the QB's rating was lower than his career regular season rating. Last column is again the team W-L record in such games followed by W-L in the other games.
Kelly
71%
6-6
P. Manning
68%
5-8
Brady
68%
9-6
Marino
61%
2-9
Young
57%
3-5
Roethlisberger
57%
4-4
Favre
50%
2-10
Montana
48%
6-5
Warner
46%
3-3
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
McNabb
44%
1-6
Elway
41%
4-5
Aikman
40%
2-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
E. Manning
27%
1-2
Brees
22%
0-2
First: "Bad game" defined as less than 6 adjusted yards per attempt. Last column is team W-L record in such games.
Kelly
59%
5-5
Marino
56%
1-9
McNabb
50%
2-6
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
Roethlisberger
43%
3-3
P. Manning
42%
4-4
Elway
38%
4-4
Brady
36%
6-2
Young
36%
1-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
Favre
29%
1-6
E. Manning
27%
0-3
Aikman
27%
1-3
Montana
26%
2-4
Warner
8%
1-0
Brees
0%
0-0
Second: "Bad game" defined as one where the QB's rating was lower than his career regular season rating. Last column is again the team W-L record in such games followed by W-L in the other games.
Kelly
71%
6-6
P. Manning
68%
5-8
Brady
68%
9-6
Marino
61%
2-9
Young
57%
3-5
Roethlisberger
57%
4-4
Favre
50%
2-10
Montana
48%
6-5
Warner
46%
3-3
Hasselbeck
45%
2-3
McNabb
44%
1-6
Elway
41%
4-5
Aikman
40%
2-4
Rodgers
33%
1-1
E. Manning
27%
1-2
Brees
22%
0-2
QB Career Phases
Post inspired by: http://joeposnanski.si.com/2012/02/10/aging-with-chart/
This is based on age rather than experience but I imagine the results would basically be the same.
I searched for the number of seasons with 224 or more pass attempts and a passer rating index of 110 for each age from 22 to 40. Most people are familiar with passer rating; the index is just that number adjusted for the league average; 100 is average, higher is above average, and lower is below average. The other cutoff, 224 attempts, is the minimum needed to qualify for the NFL passer rating title.
On average about 8 quarterbacks reach the mark every season. So roughly it represents the top quadrant of NFL quarterbacks.
Below there are three columns. The first is age, the second is the link (so you can explore the individual quarterbacks to accomplish these seasons), and the third is the number of quarterbacks who fit the above criteria.
22 http://pfref.com/tiny/WYNPs 4
23 http://pfref.com/tiny/XO07e 11
You can generally see a sort of bell curve in the above numbers. The curve becomes starker if you combine the ages into groups of 3:
22-24: 32 seasons
25-27: 120 seasons
28-30: 134 seasons
31-33: 108 seasons
34-36: 67 seasons
37-40: 18 seasons
This is based on age rather than experience but I imagine the results would basically be the same.
I searched for the number of seasons with 224 or more pass attempts and a passer rating index of 110 for each age from 22 to 40. Most people are familiar with passer rating; the index is just that number adjusted for the league average; 100 is average, higher is above average, and lower is below average. The other cutoff, 224 attempts, is the minimum needed to qualify for the NFL passer rating title.
On average about 8 quarterbacks reach the mark every season. So roughly it represents the top quadrant of NFL quarterbacks.
Below there are three columns. The first is age, the second is the link (so you can explore the individual quarterbacks to accomplish these seasons), and the third is the number of quarterbacks who fit the above criteria.
22 http://pfref.com/tiny/WYNPs 4
23 http://pfref.com/tiny/XO07e 11
24 http://pfref.com/tiny/LtDym 17
25 http://pfref.com/tiny/hDayx 33
26 http://pfref.com/tiny/knw7p 35
27 http://pfref.com/tiny/h21zc 52
28 http://pfref.com/tiny/5NcJx 48
29 http://pfref.com/tiny/lRaJ5 43
30 http://pfref.com/tiny/XyPYk 43
31 http://pfref.com/tiny/xVwez 35
32 http://pfref.com/tiny/XlojC 36
33 http://pfref.com/tiny/BTG38 37
34 http://pfref.com/tiny/oXqpg 30
35 http://pfref.com/tiny/nNx5C 20
36 http://pfref.com/tiny/T6qtj 17
37 http://pfref.com/tiny/IiVZR 9
38 http://pfref.com/tiny/BLyTQ 5
39 http://pfref.com/tiny/voSMY 3
40 http://pfref.com/tiny/pRrE3 1
25 http://pfref.com/tiny/hDayx 33
26 http://pfref.com/tiny/knw7p 35
27 http://pfref.com/tiny/h21zc 52
28 http://pfref.com/tiny/5NcJx 48
29 http://pfref.com/tiny/lRaJ5 43
30 http://pfref.com/tiny/XyPYk 43
31 http://pfref.com/tiny/xVwez 35
32 http://pfref.com/tiny/XlojC 36
33 http://pfref.com/tiny/BTG38 37
34 http://pfref.com/tiny/oXqpg 30
35 http://pfref.com/tiny/nNx5C 20
36 http://pfref.com/tiny/T6qtj 17
37 http://pfref.com/tiny/IiVZR 9
38 http://pfref.com/tiny/BLyTQ 5
39 http://pfref.com/tiny/voSMY 3
40 http://pfref.com/tiny/pRrE3 1
You can generally see a sort of bell curve in the above numbers. The curve becomes starker if you combine the ages into groups of 3:
22-24: 32 seasons
25-27: 120 seasons
28-30: 134 seasons
31-33: 108 seasons
34-36: 67 seasons
37-40: 18 seasons
What might all this mean for current quarterbacks? I haven't looked at how individual quarterbacks age, so take these with a grain of salt.
Peyton Manning: Already thought to be on the downside due to his neck injury, he is entering his age 36 season. This could be a double whammy.
Tom Brady: Just had another great season, but next year is his age 35 season. It should not come as a total shock were he to start declining in 2012.
Eli Manning: Now with 2 Super Bowl wins, his Hall of Fame case probably relies on him being statistically consistent for the remainder of his career. He has not been so far. Next year is his age 31 season. If he were to follow the trends, he should remain effective for a few years, but 2011 may very well end up being the best season of his career.
Aaron Rodgers: 2011 will probably end up being his best season as well, but what a season it was. He should continue to produce as he is still only approaching his age 29 season.
Drew Brees: Now 33, he still should have some good seasons ahead, but he is getting up in years.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Quarterbacks vs. Pitchers: Credit for Win-Loss Percentage
30% of all PA in 2011 were home runs, walks, and strikeouts
Baseball is 50% run scoring and 50% run prevention
If you only give a pitcher credit for the three "true outcomes" he deserves 15% credit for wins. If you give the pitcher credit for all run prevention, he's 50% responsible for wins. This assumes a complete game; adjust for, say, 6 IP per start and the range becomes 5%-33%. One in every 5 starts, 1%-7% is our range.
So:
Wins in starts (CG): 15-50%
Wins in average start (6IP): 5%-33%
Wins for team: 1-7%
Football is X% offense (point scoring), and X% defense (point prevention)... but also X% special teams. The equation is something like O=D>S. Either way, the offense is something less than 50%, though perhaps marginally.
If you give a QB credit for the entire offense, he gets something less than 50% of credit for wins.
But that's probably too much. In 2011, 34% of yards were gained on the ground, so let's give the passing attack gets about 2/3 credit.
How much of that is the QB? That's the question.
If we say 45% offense, 45% defense, 10% special teams, and give the QB full credit for the passing game, 2/3 of 45% is 30%.
But there is also pass protection and receiver ability to consider. How much should that count? Do pre-snap adjustments by the QB matter as much? Do QBs deserve some credit for the running game?
Overall, somewhere between 20-30% credit seems right to me.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
On the NFL Playoffs
Adam Vinatieri misses a field goal. Scott Norwood makes a field goal.
Lee Evans catches a pass. Clarence Davis drops a pass.
Aaron Bailey catches a pass. Jackie Smith catches a pass.
Dwight Clark drops a pass.
Lewis Billups makes an interception. Asante Samuel makes an interception.
Earnest Byner doesn't fumble. Jerry Rice is ruled to have fumbled.
Roger Craig doesn't fumble. Tom Brady is ruled to have fumbled.
Pete Stoyanovich makes a field goal. Adam Vinatieri misses another field goal.
Drew Pearson is called for pass interference. Ronnie Lott is not called for holding.
Ray Hamilton is not called for roughing.
Kevin Dyson scores.
Jack Tatum hits Fuqua with slightly less force.
And these are just some obvious ones.
Why do people rate quarterbacks based on “wins” and “rings” and so forth?
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Possible Conference Title Games and Playoff History Behind Each Matchup
NFC
Giants at 49ers
2002 Wild Card: 49ers 39, Giants 38
1993 Divisional: 49ers 44, Giants 3
1990 NFC Championship: Giants 15, 49ers 13
1986 Divisional: Giants 49, 49ers 3
1985 Wild Card: Giants 17, 49ers 3
1984 Divisional: 49ers 21, Giants 10
1981 Divisional: 49ers 38, Giants 24
Giants at Saints
None
49ers at Packers
2001 Wild Card: Packers 25, 49ers 15
1998 Wild Card: 49ers 30, Packers 27
1997 NFC Championship: Packers 23, 49ers 10
1996 Divisional: Packers 35, 49ers 14
1995 Divisional: Packers 27, 49ers 17
Saints at Packers
None
AFC
Broncos at Ravens
2000 Wild Card: Ravens 16, Broncos 3
Broncos at Texans
None
Ravens at Patriots
2009 Wild Card: Ravens 33, Patriots 14
Texans at Patriots
None
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Saints Kneel on Fourth Down, Clock Runs Out
Something went amiss at the end of the New Orleans-Detroit tonight.
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=320107018&period=4
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012010701/2011/POST18/lions@saints#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay
http://espn.go.com/nfl/forum#!/topic/1325996506-72-405
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=320107018&period=4
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012010701/2011/POST18/lions@saints#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay
http://espn.go.com/nfl/forum#!/topic/1325996506-72-405
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Bill Dudley
As far as I know, the only NFL player to record a touchdown in seven different ways: passing, rushing, receiving, and returning a kickoff, punt, interception, and fumble.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DudlBi00.htm
Just a note I thought I'd share...
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DudlBi00.htm
Just a note I thought I'd share...
Monday, December 12, 2011
Comparing 3 Quarterbacks
Cam Newton (career to date): 81.1 RTG, 7.0 AY/A, 2.4 Y/R*
Tim Tebow (career to date): 83.4 RTG, 7.3 AY/A, 3.5 Y/R*
Vince Young (rookie year): 66.7 RTG, 5.2 AY/A, 3.9 Y/R*
Y/R* is (rushing yards - yards lost on sacks) / (rushing attempts + times sacked)
The above covers 13 starts for Newton and Young, and 11 starts for Tebow.
How do you think these 3 will be ranked when their careers are over?
Tim Tebow (career to date): 83.4 RTG, 7.3 AY/A, 3.5 Y/R*
Vince Young (rookie year): 66.7 RTG, 5.2 AY/A, 3.9 Y/R*
Y/R* is (rushing yards - yards lost on sacks) / (rushing attempts + times sacked)
The above covers 13 starts for Newton and Young, and 11 starts for Tebow.
How do you think these 3 will be ranked when their careers are over?
Thursday, December 16, 2010
The "State" of Sports in DC
A couple thoughts on my mind as the Redskins cut Hunter Smith and the Nationals trade Josh Willingham.
First, the Redskins. Coach Mike Shanahan claims that the botched hold in the team's 17-16 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday was not the reason the Redskins cut holder/punter Hunter Smith. Shanahan claims Smith's hang time has not been up to par. My reaction: riiiiiiiiiiight... the timing is just a funny coincidence. I call BS on this one. If he's been bad all year, why would you wait 13 games and get knocked out of playoff contention before you cut him? This team is just a mess; has been for years, will be for years to come, and this move is pretty typical.
Now, the Nationals. OF Josh Willingham was traded for Corey Brown, a 25-year-old outfielder who has never made it past AAA and never played well higher than AA, and Henry Rodriguez, a 23-year-old relief pitcher who can throw fast. An uninspiring haul; maybe the reliever will work out (and he did throw 27 2/3 innings in the Major Leagues last year), but the team's weakness is not the bullpen. Realistically, however, if they had to trade Willingham, they probably got the most they could. But consider, Willingham spent two years in DC, during which he reached base 38% of the time with 40 home runs - pretty good numbers. He is, of course, also 31 (32 by the beginning of next season) and injury-prone. This sounds far too much like someone to whom the Nationals just gave 126 million dollars, but in the case of Willingham it makes him expendable.
Regardless, the Nats' moves have been justifiable if they continue to change the roster. They still desperately need a first baseman (they already had a pretty good one, but didn't want to commit 3-4 more years to him). And the current lineup is pretty uninspiring after 3B Ryan Zimmerman and their $126-million-man. Plus, they could use some starting pitchers, although there aren't any available that are much better than what they have, unless they want to trade away half their prospects.
In general, however, at least there's a chance the moves the Nationals have made will all work out in the end. That's far more than can be said for their NFL counterparts.
First, the Redskins. Coach Mike Shanahan claims that the botched hold in the team's 17-16 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday was not the reason the Redskins cut holder/punter Hunter Smith. Shanahan claims Smith's hang time has not been up to par. My reaction: riiiiiiiiiiight... the timing is just a funny coincidence. I call BS on this one. If he's been bad all year, why would you wait 13 games and get knocked out of playoff contention before you cut him? This team is just a mess; has been for years, will be for years to come, and this move is pretty typical.
Now, the Nationals. OF Josh Willingham was traded for Corey Brown, a 25-year-old outfielder who has never made it past AAA and never played well higher than AA, and Henry Rodriguez, a 23-year-old relief pitcher who can throw fast. An uninspiring haul; maybe the reliever will work out (and he did throw 27 2/3 innings in the Major Leagues last year), but the team's weakness is not the bullpen. Realistically, however, if they had to trade Willingham, they probably got the most they could. But consider, Willingham spent two years in DC, during which he reached base 38% of the time with 40 home runs - pretty good numbers. He is, of course, also 31 (32 by the beginning of next season) and injury-prone. This sounds far too much like someone to whom the Nationals just gave 126 million dollars, but in the case of Willingham it makes him expendable.
Regardless, the Nats' moves have been justifiable if they continue to change the roster. They still desperately need a first baseman (they already had a pretty good one, but didn't want to commit 3-4 more years to him). And the current lineup is pretty uninspiring after 3B Ryan Zimmerman and their $126-million-man. Plus, they could use some starting pitchers, although there aren't any available that are much better than what they have, unless they want to trade away half their prospects.
In general, however, at least there's a chance the moves the Nationals have made will all work out in the end. That's far more than can be said for their NFL counterparts.
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