The Archive

Monday, February 6, 2012

Quarterbacks vs. Pitchers: Credit for Win-Loss Percentage

30% of all PA in 2011 were home runs, walks, and strikeouts
Baseball is 50% run scoring and 50% run prevention
If you only give a pitcher credit for the three "true outcomes" he deserves 15% credit for wins. If you give the pitcher credit for all run prevention, he's 50% responsible for wins. This assumes a complete game; adjust for, say, 6 IP per start and the range becomes 5%-33%. One in every 5 starts, 1%-7% is our range.
Wins in starts (CG): 15-50%
Wins in average start (6IP): 5%-33%
Wins for team: 1-7%

Football is X% offense (point scoring), and X% defense (point prevention)... but also X% special teams. The equation is something like O=D>S. Either way, the offense is something less than 50%, though perhaps marginally.
If you give a QB credit for the entire offense, he gets something less than 50% of credit for wins.

But that's probably too much. In 2011, 34% of yards were gained on the ground, so let's give the passing attack gets about 2/3 credit.

How much of that is the QB? That's the question.

If we say 45% offense, 45% defense, 10% special teams, and give the QB full credit for the passing game, 2/3 of 45% is 30%.

But there is also pass protection and receiver ability to consider. How much should that count? Do pre-snap adjustments by the QB matter as much? Do QBs deserve some credit for the running game?

Overall, somewhere between 20-30% credit seems right to me.

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