Power and Patience: Part I of a Study

This post now appears at the Fangraphs Community Blog, here.

Grand Slam on a 3-0 Count

Since 1993, twelve players have come to bat with the bases loaded and worked the count to three balls and no strikes before proceeding to hit a home run on the next pitch. Eleven of them occurred in the regular season. Below are recaps in order of increasing WPA.

If you want to see the inspiration for this post as well as an excellent analysis of bases loaded, 3-0 situations in general, see: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-peavy-and-having-to-throw-a-strike/

August 29, 2006: Jason Lane of Houston vs. Danny Kolb of Milwaukee. The bottom of the eighth began in a 3-3 tie, but by the time Lane came to bat, Houston had taken a 6-3 lead. Lane's grand slam was worth just 0.01 WPA.

October 4, 2005: Reggie Sanders of St. Louis vs. Jake Peavy of San Diego. The only postseason grand slam on 3-0 came in Game 1 of the 2005 NLDS but was only worth 0.04 WPA. Already trailing 4-0 in the bottom of the fifth, Peavy had just walked Larry Walker on five pitches, loading the bases for Sanders, who took three more balls before launching the fourth pitch of his AB over the fence. The Cardinals' win expectancy went from 95% to 99%. Peavy was immediately removed from the game and the Cardinals held on to their 8-0 lead, winning 9-5.

Also, this post was inspired by an article inspired by Jake Peavy pitching with the bases loaded and a 3-0 count in the playoffs, and Jake Peavy is the only player to ever allow a home run pitching with the bases loaded and a 3-0 count in the playoffs.

May 22, 2013: Evan Gattis of Atlanta vs. Vance Worley of Minnesota. This play was only worth 0.06 WPA. The Braves already led the Twins 4-0 in the bottom of the fourth inning when Gattis did this:



May 10, 1997: Juan Gonzalez of Texas vs. Heathcliff Slocumb of Boston. A one-run lead in the ninth inning is already valuable, so this home run, one of three of its kind to occur on the road, was worth 0.06 WPA as it increased the Texas lead to 10-5.

If you're ever having a bad day, consider this: Slocumb's appearance here began at the start of the inning in a tie game, and went double-wild pitch-walk-walk-E1 before the grand slam, after which he was removed from the game.

Also, if you ever needed more validation that Juan Gonzalez was a free swinger, look no further. I'd love to see footage of this one, because I kind of hope the pitch wasn't even in the strike zone.

April 10, 1998: Mike Piazza of Los Angeles vs. Mike Magnante of Houston. The Dodgers led 3-2 to begin the bottom of the eighth. Magnante allowed a leadoff single, and after a sacrifice bunt, got the next batter out as well. But then he walked Eric Young and allowed an infield single to Todd Hollandsworth, which brought Piazza to the plate. The ensuing grand slam on 3-0 clinched the game and was worth 0.11 WPA.

April 2, 2002: Damian Miller of Arizona vs. Brian Tollberg of San Diego. Tollberg's first start of the 2002 season went poorly. He escaped a 1st-and-3rd with one out situation in the first inning, but Steve Finley homered to lead off the second. The next three hitters all singled, the last of whom was Curt Schilling on a bunt (presumably a failed sacrifice, but I couldn't tell you how that happened without an error), so it was still just 1-0. But Tony Womack then hit a sacrifice fly, and Danny Bautista walked on four pitches. Luis Gonzalez hit an RBI groundout in an 0-1 count before Mark Grace walked on five pitches, which brought Miller to the plate. When the 3-0 pitch left Tollberg's hand, Arizona already had an 82% chance of winning the game. When the ball left Miller's bat and finally landed, their odds were 96%, and they coasted to a 9-0 win.

Tollberg's final line: 2.2 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 0 SO, 2 HR. Meanwhile, the San Diego bullpen's final line: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO. (Maybe Bruce Bochy should have gone to them sooner.)

It was Tollberg's penultimate season. In 72 innings between 2002 and 2003, he allowed 97 hits, 12 home runs and 23 walks with just 35 strikeouts.

September 1, 2000: Jermaine Dye of Kansas City vs. Ryan Rupe of Tampa Bay. South Park fans might be interested to know that apparently there was once an MLB umpire named Randy Marsh. He had third base for this game, which was scoreless through three innings. Johnny Damon, Rey Sanchez, and Mike Sweeney all singled to start the fourth, but no one had yet scored. Ball one to Dye was just actually Rupe's fifth pitch of the inning, as Damon singled in a 1-1 count, and Sanchez and Sweeney on the first pitch. Three pitches later, however, the score was 4-0, and Dye had himself 0.18 WPA. Rupe escaped the rest of the inning unscathed. Score one for the homers-kill-rallies club! (You might even say this rally Dyed.)

May 22, 1999: John Valentin of Boston vs. the Chris Carpenter, then of Toronto. Here we have our first go-ahead slam of the series. It was the bottom of the third in a 1-0 game and worth 0.19 WPA, but still.

This was a swing-happy inning. In the span of just three pitches, Darren Lewis reached on a Homer Bush E-6, Trot Nixon singled, and the immortal Jose Offerman reached on a bunt single. Apparently tired of throwing strikes if the Red Sox were just going to put the ball in play every time, Carpenter allowed the count to Valentin to reach 3-0. But not one to take a strike himself, Valentin instead took the next pitch to deep left-center.

Boston scored one more run in the inning and hung on to win 6-4.

June 26, 2010: Hideki Matsui of the LA Angels vs. Aaron Cook of Colorado. Cook’s day ended with 7.2 scoreless innings, but he lost this game in the first 5 batters. Howie Kendrick grounded out on a 1-1 pitch, Keith Frandsen singled on 1-1, Bobby Abreu got to 2-1 before reaching when 3B Ian Stewart threw away a double play ball, and Torii Hunter’s bloop single on 1-2 loaded the bases for Matsui, who was sitting on 149 career home runs. When the count reached 3-0, Cook grooved an 88 mph pitch that Matsui sent back to center field, where it cleared the fence by inches. (At about the 23 second mark here.) This homer was worth 0.22 WPA. Despite scoring no more runs the rest of the game and having Joe Saunders on the mound, the Angels would win, 4-2.

July 2, 2013: Alex Gordon of Kansas City vs. Corey Kluber of Cleveland. The 2013 season was the first ever, it seems, with two grand slams in a 3-0 count. Gordon’s was a big one, tying the game 4-4 in the fifth inning.

Here’s some footage:


And here’s some background: Kluber dispatched the Royals mostly with ease through four innings and was staked to a 4-0 lead. Mike Moustakas led off the fifth with a bloop single on 0-1 and David Lough hit a line drive single on 1-2 before Johnny Giavotella walked (on five pitches) to load the bases. The BABIP gods made up for the Moustakas bloop when Jarrod Dyson’s liner to left on a 1-0 pitch was tracked down. Then Gordon came up and worked it to 3-0. Kluber threw him a 93 mph fastball down the middle and Gordon sent it out to tie the game.

The play was worth 0.32 WPA, which made it the highest-WPA offensive play of the day, but a 2-run seventh for Cleveland got them the lead back, and they hung on to win 6-5. Thus Alex Gordon became the first player ever to hit a grand slam on a 3-0 count and still have his team lose the game. These are the Royals, after all.

August 20, 1993: Mike Aldrete of Oakland vs. John Doherty of Detroit. A two-run double by Cecil Fielder in the bottom of the third had given Doherty and Detroit a 2-0 lead to enter the fourth inning. Jerry Browne led off with a double on a 1-1 count and Ruben Sierra grounded out in a 1-2 count.

Then Doherty lost his control. Troy Neele walked on five pitches. Brent Gates singled on a 2-0 pitch, but Brown did not score. Then Aldrete worked the count to 3-0.

Nine of Doherty’s last 11 pitches had missed the strike zone. Aldrete had a career 12.6 BB% mark but just 41 career home runs (17 of them prior to the 1993 season). Yet he swung at the next pitch and knocked it out of the park to give Oakland a 4-0 lead, producing 0.32 WPA.

Oakland scored another run in the fourth and eventually built the lead to 7-2 before hanging on to win 7-6 after a four-run ninth for Detroit. (It was not the finest of Dennis Eckersley’s 390 career saves as he allowed 3/3 inherited runners plus one of his own to score.)

And now for the most important grand slam on a 3-0 pitch ever. You might have heard of the player who hit it.

May 17, 1996: Manny Ramirez of Cleveland vs. Gil Heredia of Texas.

Cleveland’s lineup this day included a plethora of great hitters, but none were Manny Ramirez. Instead they started Lofton, Franco, Baerga, Belle, Murray, Thome, Burnitz, S. Alomar and Vizquel. (Not one of them had a bad career!) The lineup performed as expected, scoring 5 runs in the first 6 innings. Unfortunately, pitcher Orel Hershiser had not performed as expected, allowing 7 runs in 3 innings. Through 6-½ innings, the score was Texas 10, Cleveland 5.

Ramirez actually entered the game in the sixth inning, pinch hitting for Burnitz after a Murray home run and Thome backwards-K. Ramirez popped out, the inning ended a batter later, and Texas took the run back in the top of the seventh on a Kevin Elster homer. Elster was batting ninth, and he was a shortstop and career .228/.300/.377 hitter. But in this game, he was now 4-for-4 with two doubles and two home runs. He surely would have been the hero of the game had the next half-inning not occurred.

In the bottom of the seventh, the combination of Dennis Cook, Jeff Russell, and Ed Vosberg allowed four singles, a walk, and two runs to seven hitters. Vosberg was a lefty whose only objective for the day was to retire the left-handed Thome. It was Vosberg who had issued the walk, which loaded the bases.

Now Ramirez, not yet 24 years of age, came to the plate for his second at-bat, and Texas manager Johnny Oates sent in the 27-year-old Heredia to protect the 10-7 lead with two outs in the seventh and the go-ahead run at the plate. When the inning had begun, Texas had a 95% win expectancy. Now they were at 81%--still heavy favorites.

Entering the 1996 season, Heredia had only allowed walks to 5.4% of the batters he had faced in his career, while Ramirez had walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances. So when the count reached 3-0, something had to give. Presumably, Heredia was looking to throw a strike. Presumably, he did.

But Ramirez lined it into deep left center field. It cleared the fence. In rapid succession, Texas saw its lead shrink to 10-8, then 10-9, then disappear altogether. When Ramirez crossed home plate, Cleveland now led 11-10 and had a 74% win expectancy. Ramirez had contributed 0.55 WPA on one swing.

Cleveland added another run in the eight inning and Jose Mesa came on in the ninth to protect a 12-10 lead. Dean Palmer struck out. Warren Newson doubled. And Mark McLemore walked.

The tying run came to the plate. It was Kevin Elster. He could still be the hero after all.

Elster took the first three pitches and only one of them was a strike. He then fouled off the 2-1 pitch. On 2-2, he went with a pitch to line it into right field. Deep right field. Where it was caught. By Manny Ramirez.

Newson advanced to third on the play, but Mesa got Darryl Hamilton to fly out to left to end the game with Ivan Rodriguez on deck.

Below, each of the above home runs in table form and chronological order:

Date	Batter	Tm	Opp	Pitcher	Score	Inn	Out	WPA	Play Description
1993-08-20	Mike Aldrete	OAK	@DET	John Doherty	down 2-0	t4	1	0.32	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep LF-CF); Browne Scores; Neel Scores; Gates Scores
1996-05-17	Manny Ramirez	CLE	TEX	Gil Heredia	down 10-7	b7	2	0.55	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep LF-CF); Belle Scores; Murray Scores; Thome Scores
1997-05-10	Juan Gonzalez	TEX	@BOS	Heathcliff Slocumb	ahead 5-6	t9	0	0.06	Home Run (Line Drive to Deep LF-CF); Buford Scores; Rodriguez Scores; Greer Scores/unER
1998-04-10	Mike Piazza	LAD	HOU	Mike Magnante	ahead 2-3	b8	2	0.11	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Hubbard Scores; Young Scores; Hollandsworth Scores
1999-05-22	John Valentin	BOS	TOR	Chris Carpenter	down 1-0	b3	0	0.19	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF); Lewis Scores/unER; Nixon Scores; Offerman Scores
2000-09-01	Jermaine Dye	KCR	@TBD	Ryan Rupe	tied 0-0	t4	0	0.18	Home Run (Fly Ball); Damon Scores; Sanchez Scores; Sweeney Scores
2002-04-02	Damian Miller	ARI	SDP	Brian Tollberg	ahead 0-3	b2	2	0.13	Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Schilling Scores; Gonzalez Scores; Grace Scores
2006-08-29	Jason Lane	HOU	MIL	Danny Kolb	ahead 3-6	b8	0	0.01	Home Run (Fly Ball); Scott Scores; Everett Scores; Ausmus Scores
2010-06-26	Hideki Matsui	LAA	COL	Aaron Cook	tied 0-0	b1	1	0.22	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF); Frandsen Scores/unER; Abreu Scores; Hunter Scores
2013-05-22	Evan Gattis	ATL	MIN	Vance Worley	ahead 0-4	b4	2	0.06	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF Line); Pena Scores; Heyward Scores; Freeman Scores
2013-07-02	Alex Gordon	KCR	CLE	Corey Kluber	down 4-0	b5	1	0.32	Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Moustakas Scores; Lough Scores; Giavotella Scores

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/17/2013.

FOTF: Ryan Zimmerman and Tom Verducci

The Nationals have signed Ryan Zimmerman to two contracts since his rookie deal in 2005. Before the 2009 season, Zimmerman signed a 5-year, $45-million contract. Only three years later, in 2012, Zimmerman signed a 6-year, $100-million extension that runs through 2019.

In 2009, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated took on the deal after it was signed, and in 2012 he wrote about it just before an actual deal came together. In both cases, he criticized the Nationals and, by extension, Zimmerman. In both cases, he was wrong in a myriad of ways, but mostly in a narrative he just couldn't let go.

In the first case, Verducci compared Zimmerman to Edwin Encarnacion, whose new deal at the time was $7.6 million for two years. Encarnacion has hit 78 home runs with a .923 OPS for the Blue Jays in the last two seasons, but in 2009, he was coming off a career year in 2008 in which his OPS was .807. Additionally, his defense at third base was bad enough to earn him the moniker "E-5."

Verducci's analysis began poorly:

• "They were born a year apart." True, in that Encarnacion was born in 1983 and Zimmerman in 1984. But the former was born on January 7 and the latter on September 28, so you're really talking nearly two years. And note that Verducci's language leaves the identity of the younger player, which is Zimmerman, ambiguous.
• "Both are third basemen." True, but how well did they play their position? Zimmerman's defensive reputation (at the time) was already sterling, and the numbers backed it up. Meanwhile, Encarnacion had the aforementioned nickname and a career 74 errors and negative-37 DRS. Even now, Zimmerman at least still plays at third base, while Encarnacion doesn't even see the field most days now, mostly playing as the designated hitter.

Verducci then pointed to their similar stat lines on offense, as if his age and position points held water, which they didn't.

Verducci's theory at the time was that the Nationals were "trying to gain some traction" who needed a "face of the franchise." It's a sort of pet theory of his, as he came back to it three years later.

Verducci's conclusion here ended up hilarious in hindsight, as he noted that Zimmerman's "OPS+ [had] declined three straight years since his 20-game cameo in 2005." In 2009, Zimmerman would hit .292/.364/.525, make the All Star Game, and post 7.3 WAR, while Encarnacion was traded to Toronto at the deadline having played 43 games and hitting .209/.333/.374 with a negative WAR. It took two more years before comparisons between the two players stopped being laughable. I don't think we can give Verducci too much credit.

Forward to 2012, and Verducci would still be on about Zimmerman's "perceived value as a 'franchise player'" while arguing against an extension, pointing to Zimmerman's durability (actually a good point!) and comparing him unfavorably to David Wright and Eric Chavez before returning once again to the idea of the "face of the franchise."

Where Verducci went really wrong this time, however, was in his estimate of what Zimmerman's extension would look like. Using contracts of Jose Reyes and Alex Rodriguez as a baseline, he came up with seven years, $123 million, and then suggested the Nationals would have to offer even more because of the new contract Jayson Werth had signed for $126 million. He warned that "putting a value on the 'face of the franchise' isn't just an emotional, impulse buy." (He was writing two days before the deadline.)

Well, he was only off by a year and $23 million. It's almost as if the Nationals didn't put a value on this face of the franchise business. 

And that's the real fault I find in Verducci's opinion of Ryan Zimmerman and the Nationals over the years. He emphasizes perception rather than actual value on the field, as if a Major League Baseball front office is going to do the same. We all make mistakes in analysis or forecasting, but we don't have to make mistakes like this. Hopefully, when Verducci is writing in 2018 or 2019 about Zimmerman's next contract, he will eliminate the face of the franchise "argument" from his narrative.

Besides, the face of the franchise will be Bryce Harper well before then.

Babe Ruth, Boston, and New York

Inspired by this tweet from www.highheatstats.com, I took a look at Boston's standings from 1920-34, the years Babe Ruth spent in New York. I was surprised to find just how mediocre the Red Sox were in those years.

To see what effect, in a vacuum, Ruth staying with the Red Sox might have had--on both the Red Sox and the Yankees--I undertook a little project.

And this is a crude way of doing this, but I just took Babe Ruth's WAR on Baseball Reference from 1920-34, and swapped it with the primary outfielder for the Red Sox those same years with the lowest WAR. Then took the new standings. Obviously, the change in WAR would not lead to the exact changes in win totals; the distribution of plate appearances would have changed dramatically; and who knows what other personnel changes would have resulted if Ruth stayed with Boston. But I like to think it's a decent measure to demonstrate how hard it would have been for the Red Sox to win even had they kept Ruth.

Instead of awarding Boston's actual WAR figure to the Yankees, I made another simplifying move, assuming replacement level in the stead of Ruth's production. This ended up not making a major difference practically speaking, as the Red Sox often trotted out a replacement-level outfielder every day in these seasons anyway. The bigger assumption here is that the Yankees would not have found an outfielder who would have given production better than replacement level in Ruth's place.

Results based on standings are also impacted by keeping the win totals for the other six American League teams the same, which obviously would not have occurred either.

Results

The link to the Google Doc is available at the bottom of this section.

For Both Teams

In the real world, New York finished ahead of Boston in the standings all 15 years from 1920-34. In this new universe, they only finish ahead of Boston...13 times. The exceptions are 1921, when the Red Sox win 87 games to the Yankees' 85, and 1924, when both win 77.

For Boston

Boston gains no pennants throughout this process, because they were quite bad regardless for much of the 20's.

In fact, the bigger change for Boston is getting out of the cellar. They finished dead last in the American League in 1922, 1923, 1925-1930, and 1932...9 times out of 15. With Ruth, they still finish last in 1925 and 1926, but not in any of the other years.

1925 was, of course, the year Ruth got sick and missed a lot of games (producing "only" 3.5 WAR), and the Yankees finished 7th, so he would not have helped the last place Red Sox much that year either.

1926, though, is worth noting. The Red Sox finished 15 games behind the St. Louis Browns, so even though Ruth was worth 11 wins that year, Boston still ends up in last in this alternate universe.

For New York

In this universe, the Yankees retain three pennants: 1923, 1927, and 1932. It's a step down from the seven they actually won with Ruth.

In 1921 and 1926, Cleveland now takes the American League title. In 1922, it goes Rogers Hornsby's St. Louis Browns, and the mini-dynasty of the Philadelphia Athletics starts a year earlier in 1928.

Fortunately for our fake Yankees, the four lost pennants result in just one denied World Series title, in 1928.

Conclusion

While a lot else would have changed had the Red Sox kept Babe Ruth all the way through 1934, Ruth's transfer to the Yankees did not by itself contribute to the rise of the Yankees and the fall of the Red Sox. Crudely taking Ruth's production away from New York and giving it to Boston, with no other changes, indicates as much. There was a lot more to the Ruth "curse" than the player himself.

Even if taking such an in-depth look might not have been necessary to reach this conclusion, it was fun to do.

The Google spreadsheet for this project can be accessed at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlxsNoNGnPMPdG45Z2tPdkNaaUtqX3o1eHZvVGZvVEE&single=true&gid=0&output=html

NFL vs. MLB: Pace and Timing

Perhaps the biggest complaint non-baseball fans have about the sport is that it is boring. Often, they point to the pace of the game to make the argument.

In an NFL game in 2010 there were an average (mean) of 126 plays. Baseball doesn't have plays in a strict sense, and its timing is, obviously, far more dependent on the action on the field, given the lack of a clock. But say you count a pitch as a play: there are almost always at least 200 in a game, and often 250 or 300.

Now consider: A typical NFL game takes three hours. That is on the long side for an MLB game, even though an MLB game will always have more plays than an NFL game, at least based on the above definitions of a play.

One's perception of time when watching the two sports on television may be where the complaints arise. While every pitch in a baseball game has the potential to create action, most do not realize that potential. The ball gets thrown back to the pitcher and--especially if he works slowly--you wait for the next one, but generally there is not much to review. Meanwhile, after every football play, the next 30 seconds can be used for replays, since football doesn't have the problem.

But, how often in football is there a commercial, followed by a kickoff, and immediately followed by more commercials?

Anyway, it would seem that it's not so much that baseball has more inaction than football, just that it's easier to cover up the inaction in NFL broadcasts than MLB broadcasts.

Degrees of Anger

On twitter, people getting angry at someone (rob neyer) for defending someone (bill james) who defended someone (joe paterno) who defended someone. How far can this go?

Colby Lewis: 12 SO, 5 HR

First time it's ever happened. 12+ SO with 4 HR did happen 3 times previously (since 1919):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT195008271.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN196208020.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199706280.shtml

Yankees Core Four

After 2010, Pettitte retires.
After 2011, Posada retires.
After 2012, Rivera retires.
After 2013, Jeter retires.

All four retiring, one at a time over four years, drip-drip-drip-drip?

The first two have happened.

The third has been hinted at by the player himself.

The fourth is less likely than the third. Jeter's contract runs out after 2013 but there is a player option for 2014. So he may hang on one more year, unless his performance reaches the point where he feels that to play would be detrimental to the team. Which is conceivable.

It would be quite the way for the "Core Four" to exit.

Quarterbacks vs. Pitchers: Credit for Win-Loss Percentage

30% of all PA in 2011 were home runs, walks, and strikeouts

Baseball is 50% run scoring and 50% run prevention

If you only give a pitcher credit for the three "true outcomes" he deserves 15% credit for wins. If you give the pitcher credit for all run prevention, he's 50% responsible for wins. This assumes a complete game; adjust for, say, 6 IP per start and the range becomes 5%-33%. One in every 5 starts, 1%-7% is our range.

So:

Wins in starts (CG): 15-50%

Wins in average start (6IP): 5%-33%

Wins for team: 1-7%

Football is X% offense (point scoring), and X% defense (point prevention)... but also X% special teams. The equation is something like O=D>S. Either way, the offense is something less than 50%, though perhaps marginally.

If you give a QB credit for the entire offense, he gets something less than 50% of credit for wins.

But that's probably too much. In 2011, 34% of yards were gained on the ground, so let's give the passing attack gets about 2/3 credit.

How much of that is the QB? That's the question.

If we say 45% offense, 45% defense, 10% special teams, and give the QB full credit for the passing game, 2/3 of 45% is 30%.

But there is also pass protection and receiver ability to consider. How much should that count? Do pre-snap adjustments by the QB matter as much? Do QBs deserve some credit for the running game?

Overall, somewhere between 20-30% credit seems right to me.

A Matter of Time: Baseball Hall of Fame

Barry Larkin has, fortunately, made the Hall of Fame. What about the still-hopefuls?

Jack Morris jumped from 54% to 67% and now has two years left on the ballot. It's looking good for him, but given the strength of the next two classes, it's no guarantee.

In his second year, Jeff Bagwell went from 42% to 56%. He should be in by now, but it seems a pretty safe bet that he will eventually get the call.

Tim Raines has gone from 30% to 37% to now 49%. He deserves to be in, and the trends are looking good.

For the three players above, I'm willing to say it's a matter of time before they're in.

Elsewhere, Alan Trammell also made a decent jump this year, from 24% to 37%, easily the highest he's ever gotten. He's got four more years. Perhaps Larkin's induction will pick up more votes for Trammell in the coming years.

Edgar Martinez managed only to get back to his first year level (about 36%). His chances depend on how, if at all, the writers' views of the DH evolve. It will be interesting to see where he is when David Ortiz is five-years retired.

Lee Smith cracked a majority (51%) for the first time, but time is running out.

Mark McGwire may never see 20% again.

Fred McGriff and Larry Walker, meanwhile, are just above 20% this year, and while they have time, they have a long ways to go.

Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy have been on the ballot for ages but have no chance as their frame of opportunity closes while they hover around 15%.

Juan Gonzalez, after cracking 5% last year, falls off the ballot with his 4% this year.

Only Bernie Williams, with just under 10%, gets a second year among this year's first-timers. He'll probably last at least a couple more years.

And that's that.

Source: bbwaa.com

Pitchers and MVP

If you polled MLB players on whether a pitcher should be eligible for the MVP award, what do you think the split between the opinions of pitchers and position players would be?

Perhaps a middle relief pitcher or two would not be dead set in his support for the idea of a pitcher winning the MVP, but it is difficult to see a starter admitting he should not be eligible for the award. I'm going to go 95-99% here, and 100% for starting pitchers.

It's less straight forward for position players. Perhaps former pitchers who were moved elsewhere might support the idea. Perhaps catchers, who work with pitchers more than any other player, would be more supportive of a pitcher winning MVP. Otherwise, it seems that there's not much to go on. There would probably be more "no opinion" answers among position players. But it could go without saying that position players are less likely than pitchers to think of pitchers as MVP-eligible.

These are pure hypotheticals (until ESPN or Sports Illustrated gets on it), but you can get an idea from Jayson Stark's article the other day about Justin Verlander. Pitcher Chris Carpenter says of course pitchers should be considered! Shortstop Jimmy Rollins, meanwhile, is dead set against it. (I'll refrain from suggesting that perhaps Rollins subconsciously feels Jake Peavy deserved the 2007 award over him and is compensating for that.)

This division would be hard to classify as unexpected. That said, it would be interesting to see some actual figures. Divide a poll into starters/closers, middle relievers, catchers, and positions 3-9 and see what comes out.

Nationals Park Presidents Race

So I joined this fantasy league for the Presidents Race that occurs at every Nationals home game.

Unfortunately, I picked fourth.

Written January 3, 2011 but Never Published

Note: As the title suggests, this is an old piece I never posted. Why would I post it now, long after even the trading deadline has passed, and shortly after Chris Carpenter signed a contract extension? Good question, and I'm not sure. Probably because I haven't posted anything recently.

A Sports Illustrated writer recently suggested that the Cardinals could conceivably trade Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter if things don't go their way in 2011. This seems as (highly) unlikely; not necessarily that the Cardinals won't contend in the NL Central, but that they would trade Pujols and/or Carpenter. Talk of what would be a "fair trade" was an incredibly popular topic in the days after the GM Ken Towers of the Diamondbacks wondered aloud whether he might trade Justin Upton. It's not a very good direct comparison for a few reasons. Yet imagine the speculation were it to get out that the Cardinals were considering trading [insert hyperbolic description of Albert Pujols here], and then a former Cy Young winner to boot, considering all the speculation about Upton.

The haul for a Pujols-Carpenter package would not be as spectacular as one might suspect. The team that deals with St. Louis would, barring talk of extensions, likely only get two months of the players for a few reasons. First, both are free agents after the 2011 season. Also, this hypothetical trade would depend on St. Louis being out of contention, and considering they expect to be in contention for the most of the season, they would probably wait until the last moment to make the trade. Because of the limited time remaining on their contracts, plus the fact that Pujols and Carpenter both have 10-5 no-trade rights, the team working with the Cardinals would certainly be a contending club. Would any contending team that needs a boost have what it takes to pry them away from St. Louis?

First, though, what exactly would Pujols and Carpenter produce in two months? Fan projections have Pujols forecast for 7.7 WAR in 2011, and Carpenter set for 4.2 WAR. Over two months of a six month season, that comes out to approx. 4 combined WAR. From a strictly on-field standpoint, trading for four wins (or, more likely based on the players being replaced, three or so wins) is expensive but doable.

Which team could most use this production? Unfortunately you can't predict which teams will be on the brink of contention seven months in advance, so any studying has to be done independent of where various teams may be in the standings come July 2011. So instead, for now possible destinations come down to the usual suspects. While the Yankees would gladly take a starting pitcher, they have Teixeira at first making $22.5 million in 2011. The Red Sox are set with Gonzalez. The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard a ton and definitely don't need the rotation help. (One might say the Howard contract is a sunk cost, but there seems to be a consensus that the Phillies were already pushing the limits of their pocketbooks with the Lee contract.) Of course, if it was not before, it should be perfectly obvious by now that too much depends on the season to analyze hypothetical mid-season trades seven months ahead of time.

Additionally, there is something at play that cannot go unsaid. Pujols is worth far more to the Cardinals (or more accurately, their reputation) than wOBA or WAR or whatever stat can state. The fan base would be outraged unless they got far more out of the trade than his already high on-field value out of the trade. (Adam Dunn is no Albert Pujols, but Nationals fans' reactions as his saga played out are a lower-scale version of what one might expect from Cardinals fans regarding Pujols.) Of course, unlike the Nationals and Dunn, the Cardinals can't simply let Pujols walk without a fight after the contract expires, and they are certainly not going to give up on trying by July. We can already see why it's absurd to project that the Cardinals would trade Pujols, let alone for whom. However, it seems that Carpenter on his own might be tradeable, 10-5 rights notwithstanding.

More Yankee Stadium Absurdity

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18813957&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_18813957&v=3

By now we're sort of used to home runs one or two rows deep into right field at the new Yankee Stadium, but new heights, so to speak, were reached on Sunday.

Notice, as the Yankees announcers did, Rodriguez's reaction to this home run on initial contact.

You can be sure that in, say, Tampa Bay, his reaction would have been warranted. But even a pop fly's got a shot to be a shot at Yankee Stadium.

Game Score Calculator

Having searched everywhere for a quick way to calculate a pitcher's game score, I decided to create my own. It's available as a Google Docs template. If Google Docs is behaving (it hasn't been lately), the template can be accessed at this link, or below: https://docs.google.com/templates?q=game+score+calculator 



Game score is a baseball statistic that tries to quantify a starting pitching performance in one number. For more info see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score

Is Robinson Cano already the best Yankee second baseman of all time?

Robinson Cano put on an amazing display of power at the 2011 Home Run Derby. Towards the end of the contest, he needed to break the final round record of 11 that Adrian Gonzalez had just tied to win, and he got to 12 while missing just six times.

He has very possibly been the best Yankee player, at least among position players, since the beginning of 2010.

When you think of Yankees, it’s pretty easy to identify the best at each position (or, in the case of center field, a top two). However, nobody really jumps to mind as an all-time great at second base. The Yankees have never had a Joe Morgan or Jackie Robinson caliber second baseman.

So, could Cano already be the answer?

Candidates: Cano, Joe Gordon, Tony Lazzeri, Willie Randolph, Snuffy Stirnweiss

Some of you might already know the answer looking at the names on that list. Everyone else, we can pretty safely say that Cano has some work to do:

             PA    WAR     o/dWAR        BA/OBP/SLG   OPS+

Randolph   7465   49.8   40.5/9.3    .275/.374/.357   105

Lazzeri    7058   46.6   46.3/0.3    .293/.379/.467   120

Gordon     4216   36.3   26.1/10.2   .271/.358/.467   120

Cano       4100   26.8   23.7/3.1    .308/.346/.492   118

Stirnweiss 3800   26.0   19.6/6.4    .274/.366/.382   108

Notes, for those not sabermetrically inclined: WAR is Wins Above Replacement, an approximation of a player's value compared to how a career AAA player might have performed. oWAR and dWAR are the offensive and defensive components of WAR. Total Zone, referenced once below, is the statistic that makes up dWAR.

On first glance, Cano’s offense may appear to blow the rest out of the water, with the only .300 average in the group, as well as the top slugging percentage. But he is last of the five in getting on base, and Lazzeri and Gordon have slightly better OPS+ ratings (which adjust for era).

Total Zone loves it some Yankee defense at second base, with Randolph, Gordon, and Stirnweiss gaining quite a bit of value from their defense. Cano’s defense is pretty good as well, but not the best.

Given the overall package brought to the table by each of these players, it is pretty safe to say Cano is not quite the top Yankee second baseman of all time. In fact, it’s not particularly close. Yet.

Were he to end with as many plate appearances with the Yankees as Willie Randolph, Cano would be worth 48.8 wins, one shy of Randolph. He would, however, have more offensive value than Randolph--but not quite as much as Joe Gordon.

However, simply by going for what Cano is “on pace” for may shortchange him. In 2009 and 2010, Cano put together a .320/.366/.527 (131 OPS+) line, and was worth 11.4 wins. If that is his peak, and he maintains, say, an All-Star caliber 5 WAR per season for the next 5 years (minus the the 2.7 he already has this season), that gives him a total of 49.1 WAR through his age 32 season. A few more years at even 2 wins a year would easily give him the highest number among the five players we looked at here.

Cano has a good shot at being looked back on as the best Yankee second baseman of all time, joining other Yankee positional giants such as Lou Gehrig at first, Babe Ruth in right, and Yogi Berra catching. But he is not even close yet. Lazzeri probably deserves the title currently.

2011 Hall of Fame Tidbit

Here's an old post I never got around to publishing in a timely matter, but if you're a fan of baseball history, I still think that it will interest you.

The two National Baseball Hall of Fame inductees this year, Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven, only faced each other once in their careers. It was a game between Blyleven's California Angels and Alomar's Toronto Blue Jays on July 4, 1992. It was Blyleven's final season and Alomar's fifth. Alomar, and in fact most of the Jays, got the best of Blyleven and the Angels that day, as Toronto won 8-6. Alomar had a triple and a walk in 3 plate appearances vs. Blyleven.

But there was something else interesting about that game: the pitcher on the mound for Toronto that day was none other than Jack Morris. He and Blyleven have been linked for years by the annual debate over the Hall of Fame, and each has their fierce supporters. Blyleven finally got in this year, of course, but it seems that Morris will end up on the outside looking in.

Either way, turns out Morris wasn't much more effective than Blyleven that day in 1992: he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings with 2 strikeouts, while Blyleven allowed 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings with 5 strikeouts. Morris' extra 5 outs did get him the win as Toronto scored once more, off the California bullpen, before Morris departed.

It's kind of an intriguing footnote that the only time this year's inductees faced each other also happened to include Morris. At least, I think so. Let me know whether you agree or disagree.

Game Box Score: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR199207040.shtml

The "State" of Sports in DC

A couple thoughts on my mind as the Redskins cut Hunter Smith and the Nationals trade Josh Willingham.

First, the Redskins. Coach Mike Shanahan claims that the botched hold in the team's 17-16 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday was not the reason the Redskins cut holder/punter Hunter Smith. Shanahan claims Smith's hang time has not been up to par. My reaction: riiiiiiiiiiight... the timing is just a funny coincidence. I call BS on this one. If he's been bad all year, why would you wait 13 games and get knocked out of playoff contention before you cut him? This team is just a mess; has been for years, will be for years to come, and this move is pretty typical.

Now, the Nationals. OF Josh Willingham was traded for Corey Brown, a 25-year-old outfielder who has never made it past AAA and never played well higher than AA, and Henry Rodriguez, a 23-year-old relief pitcher who can throw fast. An uninspiring haul; maybe the reliever will work out (and he did throw 27 2/3 innings in the Major Leagues last year), but the team's weakness is not the bullpen. Realistically, however, if they had to trade Willingham, they probably got the most they could. But consider, Willingham spent two years in DC, during which he reached base 38% of the time with 40 home runs - pretty good numbers. He is, of course, also 31 (32 by the beginning of next season) and injury-prone. This sounds far too much like someone to whom the Nationals just gave 126 million dollars, but in the case of Willingham it makes him expendable.

Regardless, the Nats' moves have been justifiable if they continue to change the roster. They still desperately need a first baseman (they already had a pretty good one, but didn't want to commit 3-4 more years to him). And the current lineup is pretty uninspiring after 3B Ryan Zimmerman and their $126-million-man. Plus, they could use some starting pitchers, although there aren't any available that are much better than what they have, unless they want to trade away half their prospects.

In general, however, at least there's a chance the moves the Nationals have made will all work out in the end. That's far more than can be said for their NFL counterparts.