The Archive

Monday, January 9, 2012

A Matter of Time: Baseball Hall of Fame

Barry Larkin has, fortunately, made the Hall of Fame. What about the still-hopefuls?

Jack Morris jumped from 54% to 67% and now has two years left on the ballot. It's looking good for him, but given the strength of the next two classes, it's no guarantee.

In his second year, Jeff Bagwell went from 42% to 56%. He should be in by now, but it seems a pretty safe bet that he will eventually get the call.

Tim Raines has gone from 30% to 37% to now 49%. He deserves to be in, and the trends are looking good.

For the three players above, I'm willing to say it's a matter of time before they're in.

Elsewhere, Alan Trammell also made a decent jump this year, from 24% to 37%, easily the highest he's ever gotten. He's got four more years. Perhaps Larkin's induction will pick up more votes for Trammell in the coming years.

Edgar Martinez managed only to get back to his first year level (about 36%). His chances depend on how, if at all, the writers' views of the DH evolve. It will be interesting to see where he is when David Ortiz is five-years retired.

Lee Smith cracked a majority (51%) for the first time, but time is running out.

Mark McGwire may never see 20% again.

Fred McGriff and Larry Walker, meanwhile, are just above 20% this year, and while they have time, they have a long ways to go.

Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy have been on the ballot for ages but have no chance as their frame of opportunity closes while they hover around 15%.

Juan Gonzalez, after cracking 5% last year, falls off the ballot with his 4% this year.

Only Bernie Williams, with just under 10%, gets a second year among this year's first-timers. He'll probably last at least a couple more years.

And that's that.


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