The Archive

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Presidential Election History Miscellany

Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Oklahoma have voted the same way in every election since Wyoming supported Dewey over FDR in 1944. All four voted for Truman in 1948, Johnson in 1964, and the Republican in every other year.

Idaho and Utah have voted the same way since 1916. Idaho supported Wilson, and Utah Taft in 1912.

Vermont and Maine supported different candidates in 1912 (Vermont for Taft, Maine for Wilson) and 1968 (Vermont for Nixon, Maine for Humphrey). Otherwise, they have supported the same candidate in every election since 1856. Until 1992, they supported the Republican in every election except in 1964; since 1992, they have supported the Democrat each time.

From 1856-1908, every New England state except Connecticut supported the Republican candidate. Connecticut supported Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland all three times he ran (1884-92).

Except for New Hampshire in 2000, every New England state including Connecticut has voted for the Democrat in each election since 1992.

Since the Great Depression, Minnesota has only supported two Republicans: Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, and Nixon in 1972. It was the only state to oppose Reagan twice. Before the Great Depression, Minnesota had never supported a Democrat, choosing the Republican every year except 1912, when it supported Theodore Roosevelt.

Between 1948 and 1980 (nine elections), Louisiana never supported the same party in consecutive years.

Since 1920, the following six states have voted the same way in each election: North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Nebraska. All six supported the Democrat in 1932, 1936, and 1964. Otherwise they have all supported Republicans.

Non-southern states that voted for Cleveland thrice: New Jersey, Connecticut

States that never voted for FDR: Vermont, Maine

States that voted Democrat exactly once from 1968 to present: Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, South Carolina (Carter ‘76), Montana (Clinton ‘92), Arizona (Clinton ‘96), Virginia, Indiana (Obama ‘08)

States that supported Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, and no other Republican since 1960: Hawaii, Rhode Island

From 1864 to present, Maryland has voted for a Democrat or a winning Republican in every presidential election, except 1948.

States dropped between elections by an incumbent winning reelection:
1828-1832: Kentucky
1860-1864: None
1868-1872: Tennessee, Missouri
1896-1900: None
1912-1916: A lot
1932-1936: None
1936-1940: Colorado, Michigan, Iowa, Indiana
1940-1944: Wyoming, Ohio
1952-1956: Missouri
1968-1972: None
1980-1984: None
1992-1996: Montana, Colorado, Georgia
2000-2004: New Hampshire
2008-2012 (predicted): Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida

The last time a state voted for consecutive losers of different parties
1892-96, when several states went from supporting Benjamin Harrison to supporting William Jennings Bryan. They were: Washington, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

Bellwethers since 1920
Nevada 22/23 (1976)
New Mexico 21/23 (1976, 2000)
Tennessee 20/23 (1924, 1960, 2008)
Missouri 21/23 (1956, 2008)
Illinois 20/23 (1976, 2000, 2004)
Ohio 21/23 (1944, 1960)
Ohio has the longest active streak at 12 (1964-present)

Least Predictive States since 1920
Mississippi 11/23
Alabama 12/23
South Carolina 13/23
Georgia 13/23

No losing Republicans (4)
Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Massachusetts

No losing Democrats (14)
Alaska, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio

Longest Active Bellwether
Ohio 1964-present
Missouri 1956-2004

State since 1836, never voted Whig
Alabama, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, New Hampshire

Voted Whig every year 1836-52
Kentucky, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Vermont

Whig from 1836-52, Republican from 1856-1960, 1968-88
Democratic in 1964 and 1992-present

Bellwether from 1888-1944 (15 elections)

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