The Archive

Monday, January 14, 2013

Peyton Manning Postseason Team Performances Minus 2006

Excluding his Super Bowl run in 2006-07, Peyton Manning has now played in 16 playoff games.

Manning's numbers in those games: 384 of 608 (63.2%) 4645 yds (7.64/att) 29 TD 14 INT 92.9 rating

His team's record in those games: 5-11

Since Manning entered the league in 1998, 21 quarterbacks have thrown for 4000+ yards with a rating between 90 and 95 in a season. 

Manning had four of them. Below, the W-L record of the teams in the other 17:

1999: Brad Johnson (Redskins 10-6), Steve Beuerlein (Panthers 8-8)
2003: Trent Green (Chiefs 13-3)
2004: Brett Favre (Packers 10-6)
2005: Tom Brady (Patriots 10-6), Trent Green (Chiefs 10-6)
2006: Marc Bulger (Rams 8-8), Carson Palmer (Bengals 8-8)
2008: Aaron Rodgers (Packers 6-10)
2009: Eli Manning (Giants 8-8)
2010: Matt Schaub (Texans 6-10), Drew Brees (Saints 11-5)
2011: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers 12-4), Matt Ryan (Falcons 10-6), Eli Manning (Giants 9-7)
2012: Matt Schaub (Texans 12-4), Tony Romo (Cowboys 8-8)

The combined record in those 17 seasons is 159-113, or roughly 9.4 wins per 16 games. Manning's teams are four wins short of where you might expect based on his performance.

In a tangential point, Manning has now lost four playoff games when his team led the game with 40 seconds left.

Meanwhile, in these 16 games, the opposition has rushed for 2,303 yards on 519 attempts (4.4 per attempt). Since 1998, 35 teams have allowed between 2000 and 2500 rushing yards and between 4.3 and 4.5 yards per rushing attempt. The average win total of those teams is 6.2.

At the same time, Manning's teams have rushed 368 times for 1,302 yards, a measly 3.54 per attempt. There have been 49 teams since 1998 to average that few per attempt. The average win total for this category is 7.6.

While 6.2 and 7.6 are both higher than 5, they are obviously closer to 5 than 9.4.

But, now take the two rushing stats together. Since 1998 only eight teams have been out-rushed by at least 1,000 yards. The average win total of those teams is 4.1, vs. 11.9 losses. And that includes an outlier: the 2006 Colts, who went 12-4 in the regular season despite being outrushed 2768-1762. Without them, the other 7 teams averaged a record of 3-13.

Special teams is also a factor, but difficult to measure. While Manning benefited from it on Saturday, he was also victimized by it in 2008-09 by San Diego punter Mike Scrifres. But there are no core numbers available.

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