The Archive

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

QB Rankings Week 8 (Slight Digression)

Some are beginning to argue that Andrew Luck is currently enjoying a better season than Robert Griffin III. For instance, this story, which was linked to later at ESPN. (Update: They've even got Rick Reilly into the act, here.)

That article uses ESPN's QBR as the basis of its argument. So I wanted to take the opportunity to suggest that QBR highly overrates Andrew Luck.

The statistic rates Luck as the 6th best quarterback in the NFL this season to date. It is the only statistic that suggests Luck is that good. For instance, Hughes in the N. Y. Times piece does say Luck rates next-to-last in NFL passer rating before using QBR in his actual argument.

It's not just passer rating. DVOA at Football Outsiders ranks Luck 15th, and DYAR 14th. Adjusted net yards per attempt at Pro Football Reference ranks Luck 24th in the NFL.

In terms of the Luck-Griffin argument, they are close in ESPN's QBR, but Griffin is well ahead of Luck in every other measure.

We'll see if things sort themselves out over the rest of the season, but as of now ESPN's rating system is in all likelihood overrating Andrew Luck. Less likely that every other statistic is so wrong.

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